You Heard It Hear First: BCS Predictions and Breakdown

For college football fans across America, it is only 4 days away. On Wednesday the countdown is not to the kiss at Midnight, but rather until 5 P.M. ET on Thursday when Penn State and USC kickoff BCS Bowl season in Pasadena.

Can’t you almost smell the roses?

Now, don’t get me wrong. So far, there have been some great appetizers this bowl season, (Pat White comes to mind) but the BCS is the main course and it is about time we dig into some predictions.

ROSE BOWL: #8 Penn State (11-1) vs. #5 USC (11-1)
Your gut tells you USC. Your brain tells you USC. Your heart tells you…USC.

Penn State’s season, whether it is fair or not, is looked at suspiciously because of the conference they come from and the Big Ten’s bowl legacy over the past few seasons (4-9 in BCS Bowls since 2000).

On paper these teams are nearly identical. Both have tremendous defensive numbers, rush the ball well, and normally outscore their opponents by a ton. In spite of that, this game will not be close. The Nittany Lions’ spread offense will have a tough time against the Trojans’ linebacker core led by senior Rey Maualuga. Carroll is 4-0 against Big Ten teams in bowl games and 3-0 in the Rose Bowl. His team will be prepared, motivated, and playing at home.

Prediction: USC without breaking a sweat, 41-13

ORANGE BOWL: #19 Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. #12 Cincinnati (11-2)
It is no secret that the Big East and ACC were incredibly mediocre in 2008, nevertheless this is what the current system produces and apparently the best each has to offer. Most would probably agree this matchup would be more intriguing if it was the Gator Bowl, but I digress.

Tech will not be at full strength. On Sunday a team official confirmed defensive stalwarts Jason Worilds and Brett Warren will not play Thursday. There was also news that senior guard Nick Marshman was ruled academically ineligible, further diminishing the offensive line that allowed 39 sacks this season (6th most in the FBS).

The good news? The Bearcats led the Big East in sacks this season. Wait? Is that bad?

Brian Kelly, named Big East Coach of the Year for the 2nd consecutive season, is quickly emerging as a candidate for some big time openings. A win in the Orange Bowl would really help to pad that resume.

Prediction: Cincinnati pulls away late, 34-17

SUGAR BOWL: #6 Utah (12-0) vs. #4 Alabama (12-1)
First thing is first. Utah is legit and this game will prove it. Unlike Boise and Ball State, who were exposed late in the season by solid opponents, the Utes are battle tested with convincing wins over Oregon State, BYU, and TCU. Not to mention, Kyle Whittingham is one of the best up and coming coaches in college football today. I have no doubt the Utes can to roll with the Tide for four quarters and keep this close. The difference in the game?

Nick Saban.

Saban is not losing this game. The loss to Florida was a huge disappointment, but a loss to Utah would be flat-out unacceptable after being ranked number one most of the season. The Tide don't blow anyone out of the water, so expect a low scoring affair with the two defenses putting some points on the board.

Also, remember the name "King" Louie Sakoda. Utah's Groza Award finalist, made 21 of 23 field-goal attempts this season, including a 53-yarder at Michigan and a 37-yarder on the final play to beat Oregon State.

Prediction: ’Bama too much for the Utes, 27-23

FIESTA BOWL: #3 Texas (11-1) vs. #10 Ohio State (10-2)

If the Longhorns were facing anyone else besides Ohio State I would be hesitant to pick them. This is a letdown game for Texas. No if’s, and’s, or but’s about it. They should be playing for a national title (spare me the argument) and that disappointment will make this game a lot closer than it should be.

Jim Tressel’s team is very fortunate to be in a BCS Bowl and you can rest assured he will have them focused. With a healthier Chris Wells and their pride on the line, expect a much better showing from the Buckeyes’ than they gave against USC in September. The last two years hurt and the upperclassmen will come to play.

Ultimately though, Colt McCoy wins this game. McCoy may not be as talented as Sam Bradford or as heralded as Tim Tebow, but he’s got the intangibles that make the difference in a game like this. Keep an eye on Terrelle Pryor who will have a rough day against a defense that lead's the country in sacks.

Prediction: McCoy TD Drive in the final seconds, 35-34.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: #1 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. #2 Florida (12-1)

This one is going to be good. Real Good. Maybe the best ever. These two squads have the best collection of athletes in the country and are about as evenly stacked as you could ask for.

From Stoops vs. Meyer to the Heisman race, when it comes to compelling storylines this game is an embarrassment of riches. However, the balance of the game will rest on one story, one ankle, one Gator.

Percy Harvin.

Harvin is the gamebreaker and if you don’t believe me just think back to how anemic the offense looked without him (No, it wasn’t just Alabama’s defense). These two teams are great, but Harvin is what makes the Gators special. Oklahoma can survive the loss of DeMarco Murray, for Florida losing their starting running back is a luxury they cannot afford.

Expect a back and forth affair with tons of scoring that may be decided by he who scores last. Special teams is a Florida strength and a Sooner weakness, so expect some big plays that could haunt Stoops.

Prediction: Florida in Rocky-esque slugfest, 45-42

A LOOK AHEAD: 9 MLB STORIES TO WATCH FOR IN ‘09

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the 2009 MLB season will look a lot like the 2008 season. The same teams will be in the hunt, A-Rod and the Yanks will still be discussed ad nauseam, and the All-Star game will remain meaningless no matter how hard they try. However, baseball will continue to captivate us, hand us plenty of surprises, introduce us to a whole new crop of stars, and make people like me who try to predict the future look very stupid. However, since that is nothing new for me, here is my list of the top stories to watch for in 2009.

Alex Rodriguez hits 50+ home runs to reach 600 & wins 4th A.L. MVP
Coming off a sub-par season that was full of personal distractions, the Yankees third baseman will bounce back in 2009 and become the 7th player in MLB history to reach 600 homers. No, it has nothing to do with Madonna; there actually is a trend here. In 2004 and 2006 when he failed to reach 40 home runs, he responded the next season by winning the MVP and leading the league in long balls. With Mark Teixiera now protecting him in lineup, I’ll stick with conventional wisdom and put my money on Alex to redeem himself.

Changes On the Way In Toronto
With the passing of owner Ted Rogers and an increasingly competitive A.L. East, the Jays’ slow start will mean the end of J.P. Riccardi’s reign as G.M., cost Cito Gaston his job (again), and make Toronto one of the more attractive trade partners at the deadline. Riccardi sealed his fate last season when he made asinine comments about Adam Dunn’s work ethic, however Gaston will merely become a victim of playing in the toughest division in baseball. In an attempt to dump salary, look for Toronto to shop guys like B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay, and possibly Vernon Wells.

Ricky Henderson elected to the Hall of Fame on First Ballot
Without question the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of the game, Rickey is a lock to be elected to Cooperstown. Guaranteed to go into the Hall wearing an A’s cap with whom he spent parts of 14 seasons with, Henderson is the MLB record holder in career stolen bases (1,406), runs (2,295), and leadoff homeruns (81). The only question is whether or not anyone else will accompany him to the induction ceremony in July.

Randy Johnson wins 300th game for Bay Area squad
Sitting at 295 career wins the Big Unit will become the last pitcher for the foreseeable future to reach the magic mark of 300 wins (I thought that was suppose to be Tom Glavine?). With San Francisco now the benefactor of Johnson’s unyielding charm, he assuredly will fill the void in the Giants’ clubhouse left by Barry Bonds as a surly, rude, and unpleasant human being. If Johnson can stay healthy look for him to be dealt mid-season, possibly back to Arizona.

Yankees Spending Spree Pays Off, A.L. East Champs
Listen, I hate to concede anything to the Yankees, but if you don’t think that they are the best team in the American League then you are fooling yourself. Spending $420 million on three players buys you that right. An imposing rotation of Sabathia, Wang, and Burnett (let’s not count out Pettitte), aided by the 1-2 punch of Joba and Mariano in the bullpen will ultimately do in the Sox and Rays. It is World Series or bust for Joe Girardi this season and the Steinbrenner’s will remind him throughout.

Padres Trade Peavy Mid-Season to the Red Sox
He will be this year’s Holy Grail of the trade deadline, but buyer beware. For his career, Peavy's ERA at home (2.77) is a full run higher than on the road (3.80). Last season it became even more exacerbated, as he posted a 1.74 ERA at PETCO and a 4.28 ERA away from the familiar confines.

Pressed into the move by the surging Yanks, the Sox pry away Peavy for a package of RHP Clay Buchholz, RHP Justin Masterson, and another mid-level prospect. By June, Peavy will be fed up enough with the last place Pads and the persistent trade rumors that he will not refuse any move to the East Coast. The excitement of a pennant race and the opportunity of a championship will also be a factor. Expect the Angels and Cubs to also be players.

For the Mets. 3rd Time Equals Charm
On the strength of the revamped bullpen, an ever-improving Mike Pelfrey, and a Jose Reyes’ MVP-caliber season, the Mets edge out the Phillies in the final week to claim the division. However, the Phils still make the playoffs as the wild card. Expect key contributions from youngsters Fernando Martinez, Daniel Murphy, and Jon Niese as talk of a Subway World Series with the Yanks heats up sports talk in New York all summer.

Rookies of the Year Will Play in Florida This Season
Tampa Bay’s David Price and Florida’s Cameron Maybin will have breakout seasons in 2009 and sweep the Rookie of the Year Award for the state of Florida. Price, who gained notoriety for his performance in the playoffs, is destined to be the next great ace. The 6-foot-6 lefty has dominated on every level he has performed and will need to this season in order to keep the Rays relevant in the A.L. East.

Maybin, a five-tool outfielder, will make the Marlins a better team in ’09 and will allow Hanley Ramirez to drop down in the order where he is more suited. With all the upside, there is still some recklessness to Maybin’s game, but the dynamic he brings will be too much to ignore. If he finds a way to consistently reach base, look for him to be among the leaders in stolen bases in the majors.

Cubs Break Fans' Hearts, Again
The Cubs are primed to run away with the Central Division for the 2nd consecutive season, merely by the teams around them getting worse. The Astros are slashing payroll, the Brewers have lost their two best starters, and the Cardinals addition of Khalil Greene will barely make an impact. The sad part? Chicago will go down in the Division Series again. There is something to be said for a team that survives a pennant race, as they are more likely to stay sharp. Without having a team to push them, the Cubs will sleep walk through the regular season and not even “Sweet” Lou will be able to snap them out of it. Who will be this year's goat/black cat/Bartman?

Irish Eyes Are Not Smiling: Notre Dame Football Mired in Mediocrity

The 2008 season has been one bitter pill to swallow for fans and alumni of the Fighting Irish. In some ways, this year has been even more alarming than last season’s 3-9 debacle. There was the shellacking by USC in the Coliseum, the humiliation of losing at home to Syracuse, and the persistent rumors of Charlie Weis no longer finding himself welcomed in South Bend.

In Wednesday’s win over Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl, Notre Dame was able to salvage what was left of a miserable season, but barely.

Some would have you believe the poise, precision, and moxy you saw from Jimmy Clausen in the bowl game is just a taste of what you can expect in his 3rd season in the saddle. These optimists will also try to convince you the “outstanding” defense that will have many of its starters returning in 2009 will be as imposing and problematic for offenses as it was against the Warriors. They may even persuade you to think Weis finally put it all together and next season will silence all the critics, pundits, and boosters who have called for his head over the last two seasons. My take?

Don’t believe the hype!

Sure, Christmas came a day early for Weis and the Irish, as they finally ended their NCAA record nine-game bowl losing streak.

Yes, Notre Dame set a school-record for points scored in a bowl game and earned their first bowl victory since 1994. And I can’t deny Jimmy C. looked like the real McCoy, the offense finally clicked on all cylinders, and the defense seemed to have an extra bounce in their step.

But with all due respect…who cares.

They beat Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. Not a BCS team in a January Bowl, but rather they defeated a WAC team in a WACK bowl. (Does anyone say “wack” anymore?)

Former Hawaii Bowl winners include Tulane, Nevada, and East Carolina. Not exactly what comes to mind when you discuss the powerhouses of collegiate football.

“I told the team that’s the only thing I wanted (for Christmas). I just wanted to win a bowl game,” said Weis after the game.

With such contentment and satisfaction coming from the coach after a superficial win like this, one must ask how bad Notre Dame Football has become? How low have the expectations fallen at South Bend, that an insignificant bowl win over a 4th place WAC team is seen as a step in the right direction?

This is Notre Dame, arguably the most storied college football program in America. Since 1936, it is the school with the most national titles (8), the most Heisman winners (7), and its own television contract with a major network. The home of Touchdown Jesus, Rudy, The Four Horsemen, Knute Rockne and the slogan "Play Like a Champion."

This year marks the 20th season since the Fighting Irish's last national title, won under coach Lou Holtz. That makes this the longest drought for the Irish program since winning its first championship in 1924.

A 7-6 season and a win in a Christmas Eve bowl is acceptable for Air Force, Navy and Pitt (all teams who have defeated Notre Dame in the last few seasons), not the Irish.

Now, it is true that Notre Dame has a lot more competition these days when it comes to enticing the top players across the country and convincing them meet their academic standards. There is validity in the argument that the television deal with NBC doesn’t mean as much with an increasing amount of schools being exposed to a national audience.

However, each year under Weis the Irish have amassed some of the top recruiting classes and, despite their recent failures, have preserved the mystique which surrounds this program like no other.

The Yankees who are the only other organization in sports that possess the same aura, though not having won a World Series in eight years, have and never will settle for mediocrity. A point further proven by this season’s spending spree in a terrible economy.

The Irish, on the other hand, seem to have done exactly that.

When Charlie Weis was brought in 4 years ago from the New England Patriots it was to instill a winning attitude, restore the program to its former glory, and above all bring home a National Championship. On all accounts, the coach has failed and has brought the school no closer to a title than they were with Ty Willingham at the helm.

Next season is gut-check time for Charlie and the Irish (no pun intended). They must find the capacity within themselves to restore the dignity that has been visibly lacking from a once storied program.

Because if together they fail, Notre Dame Football will not bring to mind trophies or legends, but rather simply how the mighty have fallen.

What About Manny? Market Failing To Develop For Slugger Ramirez

With Mark Teixeira now being fitted for pinstripes the Hot Stove has turned its attention to the free agent who will undoubtedly have the greatest impact on his team next season. Needles to say, I am talking about Manny Ramirez.

Now whether or not that effect is positive or negative will really be up to Manny and it is more than likely to be a little of both. Ramirez, who last season seemed to single-handedly carry the Dodgers from mediocrity to the NLCS, has found out this winter that the reputation that precedes him is not so much that of a sure-fire Hall of Famer with 12 seasons of at least 30 homers. Instead, for most owners and GM’s, the idea of “Manny being Manny” on their ballclub has scared them into believing that they would be better off without the antics, distractions, and shenanigans that are as assured as his 100-plus RBI’s.

This, of course, is pure absurdity on the part of executives around baseball who seem to have been too easily discouraged by the media frenzy that is sure to accompany any great athlete as colorful and candid as Ramirez. As I assume most would recall, the Red Sox won 2 World Series due in large part to Manny’s destructive presence in the lineup, rather than in the locker room. In 16 seasons Ramirez’s teams have earned 10 playoff berths, winning 7 Division Series and 4 League Championships because of him, not in spite of. And for all the talk of Manny disrupting the Red Sox clubhouse, Boston finished their season at the same exact point his new (and less talented) team did.

In 53 games with the Dodgers, Ramirez proved he is still one of the most dangerous sluggers in the game and, quite possibly, the greatest right-handed hitter of his generation. Manny remarkably finished 4th in the NL MVP voting after compiling a .396 average, with 31 extra-base hits and a .743 slugging percentage; this despite the fact that he played only one-third of the season in Los Angeles.

After a tremendous stretch like that most, including Manny, believed that clubs would be busting down the door to have him launch bombs and reach 600 home runs in their uniform. In October Ramirez stated, "I want to see who is the highest bidder. Gas is up and so am I." Well, unfortunately now the price of gas is down and so is the price for Manny. The Yankees, with their $420 million commitment to three players, would seemingly not have the desire. (But don't hold me to that). The Red Sox have been there, done that. And teams like the Nationals, Angels and Orioles who were only willing to spend big bucks on a franchise-player like Teixiera, will more than likely pass on Ramirez as well. So, besides the Dodgers, who else does that leave?

The New York Mets.

Yes, there may be some bias on my part for this and I acknowledge it is a long shot, however I also believe it is foolish to underestimate Omar Minaya's infatuation with the Washington Heights product. The Mets certainly have the need in left field, they supposedly still have the resources (No thanks to Bernard Madoff), and it would significantly help to steal back the headlines from the Yankees who have dominated the tabloids to this point in the off-season.

Plus, it's Christmas and after the last two seasons don't all Mets fans deserve to be spoiled a little by Santa?

In a buyer's market, patience is the most valuable attribute an organization can have. If the Mets see fit to maintain their composure, they may just have this year's free agent prize fall right onto their lap as this Christmas' greatest gift.

Mets Seeking A New Lowe

Last night's news that the talks between Derek Lowe and the New York Mets were "heating up" does not come as some great shock to most. For weeks now, it has been widely reported that General Manager Omar Minaya and the rest of the Mets' brass are very high on the former Red Sox starter. And why not? For each of the past 7 seasons he has logged at least 182 innings and won no fewer than 12 games. In 2008 with the Dodgers, Lowe led the NL in starts for the 2nd time (34), was 4th in WHIP (1.13) and was 9th in both innings pitched (211.0) and ERA (3.24). He is the embodiment of everything that the Mets have not been over the last two disappointing seasons, consistent.

However, more than just being a reliable starter, Lowe is a proven winner. A characteristic not shared by many of his potential teammates. In his career Lowe has appeared in 11 postseason series, which is more than any other Met on the current roster. He is big city tested having had success in both Boston and Los Angeles. Plus, much like the Yankees' "Lightning-Rod", Lowe is no stranger to a little infidelity scandal (See here...Juicy Stuff). But before you jump on the bandwagon and start furiously e-mailing Marty Noble, you should contemplate the alternative to not signing Lowe.

Oliver Perez. (Collective Sigh.)

Remember him? The guy who gutted out 6 innings in the 2006 NLCS. The pitcher who had a 0.35 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Phillies last season. Oh yeah, and the head-case who allowed the most walks in the NL and can make you so frustratingly mad that you long for the days of Dave Mlicki. (Well maybe not that mad.) Yes, that Oliver Perez. He still deserves strong consideration and, if you really take everything into account, Ollie might even be better option than Lowe. Yes, better.

Okay I see you are not going to take me at word, so let's break it down. For starters, Derek Lowe no-matter how durable is 35-years old and I balk at signing anyone that age to the four-year contract he seems to be seeking. Perez on the other-hand is only 27 and may be entering the prime of his career. Advantage: Perez.

Lowe is right-handed and Perez is lefty. With the Phillies lefty-heavy lineup with Howard, Utley, and now Ibanez, I can't see how this not an important factor. Advantage: Perez.

Also the numbers over the last 2 Seasons are a lot closer than you may think:

Since 2007:
D. Lowe:
26-25, 3.56 ERA, 410.3 IP, 294 K,

O. Perez:
25-17, 3.89 ERA, 371.0 IP, 354 K

Trust me I know the arguments against Perez and there are many. Some nights he looks lost on the mound and can take the team out of the game before they even come to the plate. His presence on the roster, like many others, reeks of bad karma and unfulfilled promise. Not to mention this invading feeling of impending doom that comes with each one of his starts, yet his talent is undeniable. Just ask yourself now how you'll feel if Perez puts it together next season and wins 20 games. Laugh now, cry later.

And So It Begins...

Unlike Matt Millen's reign as the Lions' GM, I will keep this short and sweet. (Get ready Lions fans, it's gonna be a real long off-season.) I hope to bring a fresh look, a unique perspective, and some humor to the stories in sports that may not always get a second-look. So, expect like Bill Simmons without quite the arrogance and vanity. (Don't worry he's not reading.)

So you're thinking "The Sports Bro"? Really, why? Well you take Brandy Chastain's World Cup Striptease, add my obsession with Hulk Hogan's use of the word "Brother", and Kramer's idea for a men's bra named the "bro" and it results in a really long-winded explanation. But, now at least you understand.

The Blogs will soon start rolling and I will have new articles up every day. Your comments and e-mails are always encouraged. (The more insulting the better.)